Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)
jemr 2019, 10(35): 7-38 |
Back to browse issues page
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Aminirad M, Mehregan N. Evaluation of Sustainability of the Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes in Iran Based on Duration Models. jemr 2019; 10 (35) :7-38
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1711-en.html
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1711-en.html
1- BU-Ali Sina University , eghtesadilam@gmail.com
2- BU-Ali Sina University
2- BU-Ali Sina University
Abstract: (4864 Views)
Iran's economy as a developing and oil economy, needs to choose appropriate exchange rate regime is to achieve its economic goals. Some characteristics such as little diversity in production and trade, weak and underdevelopment financial markets and other features of the Iranian economy, Requires the choice of exchange rate regime be based on the features of the country. However, the choice of exchange rate regime a country, many variables affect that regardless of their choice of currency regime will be difficult and illogical. Hence, in this study using survival analysis and use of Reinhart and Rogoff approach to investigate the role of political and economic factors on the choice of a fixed exchange regime in Iran based on monthly data during the period 1980-2017. The advantage of survival analysis method it is time dependence that may exist in the occurrence of an event be included and the time can be used as a proxy for structural factors and unobservable variable in country. The results showed that political and economic variables affect the choice of the fixed exchange system in the country. The impact of political variables on the country's exchange rate regime shows that only economists are not involved in the decision on the exchange rate in Iran, and the preferences of political officials have a significant impact on foreign exchange policies.
Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
پولی و مالی
Received: 2018/06/1 | Accepted: 2019/02/2 | Published: 2019/06/10
Received: 2018/06/1 | Accepted: 2019/02/2 | Published: 2019/06/10
References
1. Bahrami, J., Asadi, S.P. Political Economy of the Foreign Exchange System of the Oil Countries. (2013). Journal of Iranian Energy Economics, 3 (9), 1-29.
2. Ebrahimi, S. (2012). Effect of capital inflow on real exchange rate in developing countries, Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 2 (7), 153-173.
3. Jalaee, A; Tayebi, K.; Shajari, H. (2006). An Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Iran: An Application of Neuro-Fuzzy Systems, Iranian Journal of Economic Research. 8 (26), 153-179.
4. Sarem, M.; Mehrara, M. (2014). Analyzing Central Bank Responses to Exchange Rate Volatility in Iran, Journal of Economic Research. 49 (1), 137-154.
5. Taghavi, M., Mohammadi, M. (2011). Investigating the Factors Affecting the Exchange Rate and Balance of Payments in the Iranian Economy (A Monetary Approach). Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics, 8 (3), 51-72.
6. Aizenman, J., & Glick, R. (2008). Pegged Exchange Rate Regimes-A Trap? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(4), 817-835. [DOI:10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00138.x]
7. Aliyev, R. (2015). Determinants of the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Resource-Rich Countries. ERGE-EI Working Paper, 527(1). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2555469. [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.2555469]
8. Aliyev, R. (2015). Determinants of the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Resource-Rich Countries. CERGE-EI Working Paper Series, (527). [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.2555469]
9. Ashour, M., & Chen Yong, C. (2018). The impact of exchange rate regimes on economic growth: Empirical study of a set of developing countries during the period 1974-2006. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 27(1), 74-90. [DOI:10.1080/09638199.2017.1339117]
10. Barro, R. J., & Gordon, D. B. (1983). Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy. Journal of monetary economics, 12(1), 101-121. [DOI:10.1016/0304-3932(83)90051-X]
11. Benigno, P., & Missale, A. (2004). High public debt in currency crises: fundamentals versus signaling effects. Journal of International Money and Finance, 23(2), 165-188. [DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2003.10.006]
12. Blomberg, S. B., Frieden, J., & Stein, E. (2005). Sustaining fixed rates: The political economy of currency pegs in Latin America. Journal of Applied Economics, 8(2), 203. [DOI:10.1080/15140326.2005.12040625]
13. Bodea, C. (2010). The political economy of fixed exchange rate regimes: the experience of post-communist countries. European journal of political economy, 26(2), 248-264. [DOI:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2009.12.005]
14. Buffie, E. F., Airaudo, M., & Zanna, F. (2018). Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 81, 159-184. [DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.09.013]
15. Cleves, M. (2008). An introduction to survival analysis using Stata, Stata Press.
16. Cruz, C., Keefer, P., & Scartascini, C. (2016). The Database of Political Institutions 2015 (DPI2015).
17. Drazen, A., & Masson, P. R. (1993). Credibility of policies versus credibility of policymakers (No. w4448). National Bureau of Economic Research. [DOI:10.3386/w4448]
18. Ebadi, J.; Jahangard, H. (2012). Intervention Patterns in the Foreign Exchange Market in Iran, Journal of Economic Research, 47 (3), 23-44.
19. Farzinvash; A. (2014) International Finance, Noore elam Press.
20. Frankel, J. A., & Rose, A. K. (1996). Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment. Journal of international Economics, 41(3), 351-366. [DOI:10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01441-9]
21. Frieden, J., Ghezzi, P., & Stein, E. (2000). Politics and exchange rates: a cross-country approach to Latin America, Inter-American Development Bank, 1-53. [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1814683]
22. Frieden, J., Leblang, D., & Valev, N. (2010). The political economy of exchange rate regimes in transition economies. The Review of International Organizations, 5(1), 1-25. [DOI:10.1007/s11558-009-9072-7]
23. Güçlü, M. (2009). How do Macroeconomic and political variables affect the flexibility of exchange rate regime? Ege Academic Review, 9(2). [DOI:10.21121/eab.2009219725]
24. Gujarati, D. (2015). Applied Econometrics (Second Edition) Translation by Nader Mehregan and Lotfali Agheli, Noore elam Press. [DOI:10.1007/978-1-137-37502-5]
25. Husain, A. M., Mody, A., & Rogoff, K. S. (2005). Exchange rate regime durability and performance in developing versus advanced economies. Journal of monetary economics, 52(1), 35-64. [DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.07.001]
26. International Monetary Fund (IMF) (Ed.). (2014). Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions, 2014 (Vol. 2014). International Monetary Fund.
27. International Monetary Fund. (2014). Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (Washington, October 2014).
28. Juhn, G., & Mauro, P. (2002). Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes A Simple Sensitivity Analysis.
29. Kazerooni, A; Asgharpour, H., Feshari, M. (2013). Evaluation of Survival and Risk Probability of Exchange Regimes in Economies having Exchange Anchor Monetary System and Inflation Targeting - Duration Model Approach, Quarterly Journal of Economic Modeling, 7 (22), 1-20.
30. Kenen, P. B. (1969). The Theory of Optimal Currency Areas: an eclectic view, w: Monetary Problems of the International Economy, red. A. Swoboda, RA Mundell, Chicago.
31. Kiefer, N. M. (1988). Economic duration data and hazard functions. Journal of economic literature, 26(2), 646-679.
32. Klein, M. W., & Shambaugh, J. C. (2008). The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips. Journal of international Economics, 75(1), 70-92. [DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.10.003]
33. Krugman, P. (1993). What do we need to know about the international monetary system? (No. 190). International Economics Section, Department of Economics Princeton University.
34. Kydland, F. E., & Prescott, E. C. (1977). Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans. The journal of political Economy, 473-491. [DOI:10.1086/260580]
35. Mahmoudzadeh, M., & Sadeghi, S. (2017). Optimal exchange regime for Iranian economy: DSGE approach, Journal of Economic Research, 52(1), 139-162.
36. Mozayani, A. (2006). Investigating the phenomenon of electoral cycle in Iranian economy (case study - exchange rate), Iranian Journal of trade Studies, 39 (1), 215-236.
37. McKinnon, R. I. (1963). Optimum currency areas. The American Economic Review, 53(4), 717-725.
38. Miller, R.J. (2001). Survival Analysis, Translation by Abolghasem Bozorgnia & Hojat Rezaei Pejand, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Press, No. 312.
39. Mundell, R. A. (1961). A theory of optimum currency areas. The American Economic Review, 51(4), 657-665.
40. Najafzadeh, B., Monjazeb, M., & Mamipour, S. (2016). The Analysis of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Stock Exchange Return with PANEL-GARCH Approach (Case Study: D8 Countries). Iranian Economic Review, 20(4), 525-550.
41. Oke, M. O., & Adetan, T. T. (2018). An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Exchange Rate In Nigeria. International Journal of Scientific Research and Management, 6(05). [DOI:10.18535/ijsrm/v6i5.em07]
42. Pissarides, C. A. (1980). British government popularity and economic performance. The Economic Journal, 90(359), 569-581. [DOI:10.2307/2231927]
43. Poirson, H. (2001). How do countries choose their exchange rate regime? [DOI:10.5089/9781451846553.001]
44. Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2004). The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: a reinterpretation. The Quarterly Journal of economics, 119(1), 1-48. [DOI:10.1162/003355304772839515]
45. Rodriguez, C. M. (2016). Economic and political determinants of exchange rate regimes: The case of Latin America. International Economics. [DOI:10.1016/j.inteco.2016.03.001]
46. Rodriguez, C. M. (2016). Economic and political determinants of exchange rate regimes: The case of Latin America. International Economics. [DOI:10.1016/j.inteco.2016.03.001]
47. Setzer, R. (2005). The Political Economy of Fixed Exchange Rates: A Survival Analysis. Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre.
48. Setzer, R. (2005). The Political Economy of Fixed Exchange Rates: A Survival Analysis. Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre.
49. Sfia, M. D. (2011). The choice of exchange rate regimes in the MENA countries: a probit analysis. International Economics and Economic Policy, 8(3), 275-305. [DOI:10.1007/s10368-010-0169-5]
50. Shakibaye; A; Nikbakht, L. (2008). A Study of the Long-Term Relationship between Exchange Rates and Oil Prices in OPEC Member countries, Science and Development Magazine, 15 (25), 67-85.
51. Tamgac, U. (2013). Duration of fixed exchange rate regimes in emerging economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 37, 439-467. [DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.06.015]
52. Velasco, A. (1996). Fixed exchange rates: Credibility, flexibility and multiplicity. European economic review, 40(3-5), 1023-1035. [DOI:10.1016/0014-2921(95)00112-3]
53. Zobeiri, H. (2017). Investigation the Effect of Exchange rate Gap of Official and Parallel Market on Inflation in Iran (Structural Time Series Approach), Journal of Economic Modeling Research,7(26), 167-192. [DOI:10.18869/acadpub.jemr.7.26.167]
Send email to the article author
| Rights and permissions | |
 | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
