Volume 5, Issue 18 (3-2015)                   jemr 2015, 5(18): 87-117 | Back to browse issues page

XML Persian Abstract Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Amirmoeini M, Mohammadi T, Khorsandi M. Modeling Electricity Demand in the Industrial Sector in Iran: An Structural Time Series Model. jemr. 2015; 5 (18) :87-117
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1079-en.html
Abstract:   (3086 Views)
This paper tries to model the electricity demand in Iran’s industrial sector which captures economic factors and also non-economic exogenous factors. The structural time series model (STSM) approach is employed which allows using economic theory and time series flexibility. In this approach the role of UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) including technological improvement and structural changes is modeled, therefore the income and price elasticity are estimated more accurately. The results show that the UEDT has the stochastic nature. And UEDT has a great impact on industrial energy demand during 1975-2012. So, the electricity has not been used efficiently in this sector. In the short run the estimation of the income and price elasticity are 0.42 and 0.11 respectively. The value of the cross-price elasticity of electricity demand is estimated about 0.06. It shows that natural gas substitute electricity in industrial sector, however it is small.
Full-Text [PDF 542 kb]   (1086 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Applicable | Subject: انرژی، منابع و محیط زیست
Received: 2014/07/27 | Accepted: 2014/12/28 | Published: 2015/03/1

Add your comments about this article : Your username or Email:
CAPTCHA code

Send email to the article author


© 2018 All Rights Reserved | Journal of Economic Modeling Research

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb