دوره 8، شماره 32 - ( 6-1397 )                   سال8 شماره 32 صفحات 129-177 | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها

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چکیده:   (986 مشاهده)
یکی از مشکلات اساسی اقتصاد ایران کسری مستمر تراز عملیاتی بودجه بدلیل اندازه¬ غیربهینه دولت است. دولت همواره بخشی از این کسری را با ایجاد بدهی تامین مالی کرده است. بدهی-های دولت بسته به اندازه و نوع آنها پیامدهای متفاوتی در اقتصاد کلان دارند. از اینرو، در مطالعه-ی حاضر پیامدهای اقتصاد کلان انواع بدهی¬های دولت ایران طی دوره¬ی زمانی 1352-1393 با رویکرد SVAR بررسی شده است. یافته‌های تجربی نشان می‌دهد بدهی¬ دولت به نهادهای خارج از نظام بانکی به مازاد تقاضای کل، افزایش نسبت قیمت کالاهای غیرقابل‌تجارت به قابل‌تجارت و کاهشGDP  منجر می¬شود. بدهی دولت به بانک مرکزی نیز تورم¬زا بوده و GDP را کاهش می¬دهد. بدهی دولت به سایر نهادهای سپرده‌پذیر منجر به افزایش نرخ ارز حقیقی، کاهش نسبت قیمت کالاهای غیرقابل تجارت به قابل تجارت، کاهش سطح عمومی قیمت¬ها و افزایش GDP می¬شود. همچنین بر اساس نتایج تجزیه واریانس، دولت می¬تواند با مدیریت بدهی¬های خود بخش قابل توجهی از تغییرات متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان را در کوتاه¬مدت و بلندمدت کنترل کند.
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نوع مطالعه: كاربردي | موضوع مقاله: بخش عمومی
دریافت: ۱۳۹۶/۱/۲۴ | پذیرش: ۱۳۹۷/۴/۲۰ | انتشار: ۱۳۹۷/۶/۲۱

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