TY - JOUR JF - JSE JO - jemr VL - 8 IS - 29 PY - 2017 Y1 - 2017/10/01 TI - Forecasting Risk Premium in Crude Oil futures Market with BVAR TT - برآورد پاداش ریسک در بازار آتی های نفت خام با رویکرد خودرگرسیونی برداری بیزین N2 - In this paper, risk-premium (the difference between the future prices and expected future spot price) in US crude oil futures market over the period of 1989:1 to 2012: 11 is investigated, and then variability of risk-premium through time is explained. In addition, risk premium in different time horizons of US crude oil futures market is predicted using BVAR and VAR models. The results showed that significantly 10% risk-premium existence in US crude oil futures market is approved for all time horizons (one month, two months, three months and four months), and on the other hand,by comparing RMSE of BVAR and VAR models, the results generally confirmed better predictions of risk premium by BVAR models in comparison with VAR models. SP - 7 EP - 35 AU - behradmehr, nafiseh AU - mehrara, mohsen AU - mazraati, mohammad AU - dadafarid, hadi AD - University of tehran KW - Expected Future Spot Price KW - Futures Price KW - Risk Premium KW - US Crude Oil (WTI) KW - BVAR Model UR - http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1249-en.html DO - 10.29252/jemr.8.29.7 ER -