per
Kharazmi University
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
2228-6454
2538-4163
2018-12
9
34
7
30
article
The Effects of the Housing Shock on Income Dynamics in Iran: an Application of Data Pseudo-Panel
Aziz Arman
saarman2@yahoo.com
1
Batool Azari Beni
bazari@rocketmail.com
2
Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
Fluctuations in housing prices in recent years in Iran has always been one of the most important economic issues on the economic welfare changes affect lifetime. In this paper, the effects of housing on the dynamics of income generations age is examined. This phenomenon type of model is designed to assess the generation of data building. The model is designed household budget generations by combining cross-sectional data from households in the years 2007 to 2015 are tracking. In this research, in order to clarify the contents of the review results in four steps without shock and shock 5, 10 and 15 percent reported. The results show that the average income of households without shock reduced from 86 years to 89 and then 89 years with little speed has increased, although the increase in revenue in less than 86 years is 90 years. As well as small shock in 2007 has led to middle income households in that year and the following years than before the occurrence of shocks is reduced. While the occurrence of a great shock (15%) reduces the average household income has been greatly. This could mean that in the event of a large shock of vulnerable households are barely able to restore income dropped while repairing a small shock is possible.
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1569-en.pdf
Housing Shock
Dynamic Pseudo Panel Data
Income Dynamic
per
Kharazmi University
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
2228-6454
2538-4163
2018-12
9
34
31
70
article
The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Transitional Dynamics of Business Cycles in Iran: Markov Switching Model with Time Varying Transition Probabilities (MS-TVTP)
Siab Mamipour
mamipours@gmail.com
1
Hadis Abdi
hadisabdi70@yahoo.com
2
Kharazmi University
Kharazmi University
The business cycles are one of the most important economic indicators that they show the changes in economic activities during time. The study of business cycles is important because the understanding fluctuations in GDP and effective factors on these fluctuations help policy makers to plan better and more efficient. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on business cycles dynamics in Iranian economy during period of 2005 to 2017 by using non-linear Markov switching model with the time varying transitional probabilities (MS-TVTP). So, first, the oil price shocks were extracted in four different modes, and then the effect of them on recession and boom regimes are investigated. The results of MS-TVTP model show that business cycles are affected by oil price fluctuations and shocks in Iran’s economy. The results indicate that, in all four modes which oil price shocks were calculated, the positive shocks in oil price increase the probability of staying in boom regime. Also positive oil price shocks increase the probability of transition from the recession regime in Iran’s economy. Also, with relative comparison of the coefficients of oil price shocks in the probability of staying in boom regime and transition from recession to boom regime, it can be argued that positive oil price shocks in recession period increases the probability of transition from recession more than the boom regime. In other words, oil price shocks in recession periods have a greater effect on rotation of economic situation and increase the probability of transition from recession regime, but in the boom regime, the positive oil price shock lead to increases the probability of staying in boom regime a little.
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1670-en.pdf
Business Cycles
Oil Price Shocks
Markov Switching Model
Time Varying Transition Probabilities
Iran.
per
Kharazmi University
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
2228-6454
2538-4163
2018-12
9
34
71
105
article
Constructing a Factor Augmented VAR Model to Analyze Transmission of Oil and Monetary Shocks to Iranian Economy
Hassan Heydari
hassanheydari78@gmail.com
1
Tarbiat Modares University
There is a growing attention to models which contain a broader set of economic data. In recent decade, introduction of Factor Augmented VAR models through augmentation of traditional VAR models with unobservable “factors” has made a new route to econometric modeling. In spite of the growing number of international papers and researches which have used FAVAR approach to modeling policy shocks to various economies, there is little about Iranian economy. So the paper is an attempt to fill the gap in the literature using an FAVAR model to analyze transmission of oil and monetary shocks to Iranian economy. The model contains 35 major macroeconomic annual variables spanning from 1974 to 2014. The results show that “real sector” of Iranian economy responds positively to oil shocks up to 5 years. Also “nominal sector” of the economy responds positively to oil shocks but the responses are shorter, smaller and more volatile than “real sector” responses. Finally the model results show responses of “nominal sector” of Iranian economy to monetary shocks are positive which its duration varies between 2 and 4 years.
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1596-en.pdf
Oil Incomes
FAVAR Models
Monetary Shocks
per
Kharazmi University
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
2228-6454
2538-4163
2018-12
9
34
107
137
article
The Application of Complex Networks Analysis to Assess Iran\'s Trade and It\'s Most Important Trading Partners in Asia
Monireh Rafat
monir_rafat@yahoo.com
1
University of Isfahan
The existing trade models suggest that for tradable goods potential partners can be many, but eventually only one (the one offering the best price) should be selected, therefore relatively few (unidirectional) trade links will appear between countries. If the structure of international trade flows describes as a network, trade link would give rise between countries. This paper exploit recently-developed indicators based on network analysis such as node-degree, node-strength and node-disparity, and second-degree characteristics such as node-clustering and centrality indicators to investigate the pattern of international trade pattern followed by Iran and its Asian partner. The results of this study show that East Asian countries, have had a greater increase in the number of trade partners. Iran and its trading partners in Asia, is growing trade links with countries that have more trading partners. Nearest neighbor degree index show that selected countries are looking to improve relations with countries that have more similarities with his own country. Based on the centrality, it was found that only China with the centrality index of .97 is in the core of global trade network. Emirates, Taiwan, Korea and Thailand respectively with values of .94, .92, .94 and .91 are in the inner-periphery and Turkey with a value of 0.87 is in secondary-periphery. Iran with a value of 0.72 is in outside of the global trade network
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1605-en.pdf
Networking Analysis
Global Trade Network
Trade Structure
per
Kharazmi University
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
2228-6454
2538-4163
2018-12
9
34
139
170
article
Investigation the Consumer Choice in the Use of Dental Services Care Applying Hekman Two-Step Procedure
Mohammad Amin Kouhbor
aminkuhbor@yahoo.com
1
Majid Aghaei
m.aghaei@umz.ac.ir
2
Mahdieh Rezagholizadeh
m.gholizadeh@umz.ac.ir
3
Kkorramshahr University of Marine Science and Technology
Mazandaran University
Mazandaran University
Considering the health importance in development process of countries, this study investigates factors affecting various types of dental care services participation and related expenditures as one of the most important aspects of oral health. For this reason, a sample of almost 40000 Iranian households in 2016 is selected and the impact of the mentioned factors analyzed using Heckman’s two-stage model. Results indicate that household’s income and education are two importance factors that affect the choice of dentist services and their related expenditure especially in Luxury dental services such as orthodontics and Gum regenerations. Income elasticity of root canal, Inspection and dental extraction are computed 1.04 and 0.0004 respectively. Finally, insurance coverage elasticity of root canal is 0.6, while the same elasticity for inspection is computed about 0.1 and -1 for dental extraction.
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1560-en.pdf
Dentist Services
Two-Stage Hekman Model
Household Income and Expenditure
per
Kharazmi University
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
2228-6454
2538-4163
2018-12
9
34
171
199
article
Estimating the Direct Rebound Effect of Natural Gas Consumption in the Iranian Residential Sector with the Asymmetry of Gas Price Changes
Musa Khoshkalam Khosroshahi
m.khosroshahi@alzahra.ac.ir
1
Alzahra University
Considering that the improvement of energy efficiency and the resulting rebound effect in the literature of energy economics is very important, hence the present paper uses the ARDL approach to estimate the direct rebound effect of the natural gas consumption in the residential sector in Iran. For this purpose, data from the period of 1986-2016 and the methodology based on the estimation of natural gas demand elasticity according to decomposed prices have been used. The results show that, firstly, the direct rebound effect of the natural gas consumption in the residential sector exists and, as a result, energy savings due to improved energy efficiency will be less than expected. Secondly, the direct rebound effect of natural gas demand in the short run is 69% and in the long run is 78%. Also, the findings indicate that there is no backfire effect of residential consumption of natural gas. Therefore, it is recommended to apply policies to improve the efficiency of natural gas consumption in Iran's domestic sector.
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1725-en.pdf
Natural Gas
Rebound Effect
Price Decomposition
Residential Sector
per
Kharazmi University
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
2228-6454
2538-4163
2018-12
9
34
201
254
article
Impact of Macroeconomic and Management Quality Variables on the Profitability of Private Banks; Using Structural Panel VAR Approach
Mehdi Pourmehr
pourmehr.m@gmail.com
1
Hamid Sepehrdoust
hamidbasu1340@gmail.com
2
Mohamad Kazem Naziri
Naziri_k@yahoo.co.uk
3
Nader Mehrgan
mehregannader@yahoo.com
4
Bu-Ali-Sina University
Bu-Ali-Sina University
Bu-Ali-Sina University
Bu-Ali-Sina University
Considering the importance of the Banking system in Iran economy and taking into account the strategic objectives of bank’s activities to improve their performance indicators, the main objective of the present study was to investigate the impact of internal and external factors affecting the three profitability components; including the return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and the net income margin (NIM) indicators of 13 private banks' in Iran for the period 2006 to 2016; using structural autoregressive vector panel model. For this purpose, the macro level factors responsible for profitability of banks are divided into internal components; including the quality of management, asset quality, capital adequacy and liquidity and external components such as inflation rate, interest rates, the growth of GDP, and the development of the stock market. The results indicate that the percentage of coverage of liquidity and the ratio of Non-performing loans to total loan as internal bank variables have a negative effects and the growth of GDP as the external variable has positive effect on the profitability components.
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1727-en.pdf
Return on Assets
Return on Equity
Net Interest Margin