1 2228-6454 Kharazmi University 230 رشد و توسعه و سیاست های کلان Migration, Economic Growth and Regional Convergence in Iran rahmani teymur b hasanzadeh ebrahim c b university of tehran c دانشگاه تهران 1 10 2011 2 5 1 19 12 06 2011 28 02 2012 Convergence hypothesis includes two types of beta and sigma. In this study, we examine convergence hypothesis among Iran’s provinces and discuss the effect of internal net migration in that context since 2000 to 2007. The results indicate that poor provinces grow faster than rich ones and there is beta convergence in Iran. About sigma convergence, we found that the dispersion of GDP per capita increase among these provinces over the years. Immigration is one of the factors that could influence economic growth of provinces and convergence among them. The results show a direct relationship between net immigration and per capita GDP growth of provinces. When the variable of net migration is included into convergence equation, it increases beta coefficient. So, net migration has a negative effect on convergence. Immigration flows more from the poor provinces to rich provinces and increases the gap among them.
137 سایر The impact of Socio-Economic and Psychological Factors on Life Insurance Demand in Iran Mahdavi Ghadir d Majed Vahid e d Allame Tabatabei e University of Tehran 1 10 2011 2 5 21 46 28 12 2010 09 01 2012 Life insurance as an investment and assurance tool provides a great source of investment financing in different economies. Despite life insurance development in advanced countries and in many developing economies, it could not get its appropriate share in Iranian family’s basket. This paper investigates factors that affect life insurance demand in Iran. So, random sampling used to get required information in three provinces of Iran (Tehran, East Azerbayjan and Mazandaran). Factors are divided into two main groups: Socioeconomics and psychological. Required data were gathered using questionnaire. Results show that life insurance demand has negative relationship with individual expected health condition, premium, expected inflation, degree of risk aversion and income. Bequest, economic optimism, age, employment of partner and reading has positive relation with life insurance demand. Based on the sample, result show that life insurance demand is not affected by advertisements but is affected by others recommendations. 300 پولی و مالی Developing an Overlapping Generation Model of Fractional Reserve Banking Activity with Emphasis on Maurice Allais's Approach mojahedi moakhar mohammad mehdi f Dallali Esfahani Rahim g Samadi Saeid h Bakhshi Dastjerdi Rasoul i f Esfahan University g Esfahan University h Esfahan University i Yazd University 1 10 2011 2 5 47 74 22 10 2011 30 01 2012 The purpose of this paper is to investigate the source of fractional reserve banking and to review the literature on bank credit. Evaluating the operational procedure of this banking model demonstrates a new concept of credit money shaping aspect and its affect on the practical economy. The difference in due dates between depositing and receiving loan that causes Ex-nihio money to exist, the effect of this money on prices along with economic instability are among the issues that have occupied the critic scholar's minds in fractional reserve banking realm. In this paper, the effects of the fractional reserve banking model on the consumption behavior are analyzed. Also, the view points of the critics of this banking model are addressed. In this regard, an inter-generational consumption behavior model based on Maurice Allais's perspectives has developed. Results show that optimizing the existing model is the true test of the consumption instability in a permanent state in the fractional reserve banking realm. Also, according to the results there exits the possibility of instable capital repletion under certain circumstances. 256 انرژی، منابع و محیط زیست Examination of Crude Oil Prices Relationships in Spot and Futures Markets Based on the Basis Risk and Crude Oil Inventory: Using GARCH Model Faridzad Ali j Mohajeri Parisa k j Allemeh Tabatabaei k Allemeh Tabatabaei 1 10 2011 2 5 75 102 04 08 2011 15 02 2012 The crude oil is both a commodity and a financial asset. As there are many factors affecting the crude oil spot and futures markets, the analysis of the relationship between major factors of these markets is complicated. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the price of crude oil in spot and futures market and identify the effect of the crude oil inventory and the interest-adjusted basis risk on these price changes. The monthly data of WTI spot and futures prices, WTI crude oil inventory and interest-adjusted basis risk are from EIA (Energy Information Administration) database. The data period is from January 1986 to December 2010. Due to the unpredictable volatilities and uncertainties in variables, the GARCH error process models are used. Empirical results show that there is a positive, strong and significant relationship between the spot crude oil price changes and futures prices. Additionally, the basis risk changes can affect the spot and futures crude oil prices up to three lags. Also, crude oil inventory changes have a negative effect on the spot crude oil price changes with one lag. 357 بخش عمومی The Impact of Education Expenditures on Human Capital and Economic Growth in Iran: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach Janati Mashkani Abolfazl Sameti Morteza m Khosh akhlagh Rahman n Dallali esfahani Rahim o Emadzadeh Mostafa p m Esfahan University n Esfahan University o Esfahan University p Esfahan University 1 10 2011 2 5 103 130 04 12 2011 02 03 2012 One of the important targets of the economic planning is economic growth via enhancement of the labor productivity. In this regard, education expenditures play a crucial role. This study aims at investigating the effect of education expenditures on the level of human capital and economic growth through a computable general equilibrium approach. The data on economic variables and social accounting matrix belongs to the year 2001. Three scenarios on education expenditures are defined and their effect on human capital and economic growth are estimated. The results show that education expenditures have positive effects on economic growth and human capital. A 50% increase in education expenditures in the first period causes 3.81 and 5.8 percent increase in human capital and economic growth respectively. In the second period, the same increase in education expenditures affects human capital and economic growth positively by 5.4 and 7.3 percent respectively. Although separating the economic growth into human and physical factors in the first period shows that there is no relationship between human capital and economic growth, but in second period this separation causes a relationship between the two factors. 176 تجارت و مالیه بین الملل The Optimal Official Foreign Exchange Reserves Composition for the Period 1999-2007(A Case Study of Selected Oil Producing Middle –East Economies) Vaez Mohammad Daee Karimzadeh Saeed karimian gholamhossin , University of Esfahan Islamic Azad University, Khorasgan branch University of Esfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran 1 10 2011 2 5 131 152 01 03 2011 26 12 2011 Foreign exchange reserves management is a main part of international monetary system that determines the optimum value and optimum exchange composition of foreign reserves. Recently new emerging market countries as well as crude oil exporting economies have accumulated huge stocks of foreign reserves. But the optimality of the composition of these reserves is doubtful. In today’s world economy in which such phenomena as financial crises and variations in the value of main currencies are occurring, the rearrangement in new foreign exchange convergences is probable. So, determining the optimal composition of foreign exchange reserves is one of the most important issues in international and financial economics studies. In this article we used the dynamic optimizing model based on Mean-Variance and Transaction Cost approaches to determine the optimum composition of foreign exchange reserves in selected Middle East crude oil exporting countries during the period 1999-2007. The results show that it is necessary for selected economies to revise their foreign exchange reserves so that to decrease foreign reserves depreciation risk and upgrading their ability to debts repayments. 148 تجارت و مالیه بین الملل The Asymmetric Effects of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Non-Oil Exports of Iran: A Markov-Switching Approach kazerooni alireza rezazadeh ali mohammadpoor siavash Tabriz University 1 10 2011 2 5 153 178 06 01 2011 20 11 2011 The main purpose of this article is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate shocks on the non-oil exports of Iran in the period of 1974-2007. For this purpose, using nonlinear Markov-Switching approach, positive and negative shocks of the real exchange rate have been extracted. Based on the results of the Log Likelihood Function and Akaike Information Criterion, the best Markov- Switching model has been specified as MSIH with three regimes for estimating the exchange rate shocks. After extracting the exchange rate shocks, in the next step, the main model of the research has been estimated by using the Johansen-Juselius and DOLS co-integration approaches. Results show that the impact of some explanatory variables (GDP of home country, GDP of Foreign country, Terms of Trade and Openness) on the non-oil exports of Iran has been positive and statistically significant at 95% level of confidence. However, the impact of both positive and negative shocks on the non-oil exports has been negative. Overall, the main hypothesis of symmetrical impacts of the exchange rate shocks has been rejected. 181 شهری و منطقه ای A Survey on Factors Affecting the Location of Industries in Iran (Case Study: Electronics Industry) abdolmaleki hojjatullah Ghaemi Asl Mahdi Imam Sadiq (a.s) University Ferdowsi University 1 10 2011 2 5 179 209 12 03 2011 12 01 2012 The subject of microeconomics is the behavior of firms, individuals and government. According to production theory, rational behavior of the firms, leads to profit maximization. So, one of the most important rational questions in production theory, is the determination of a suitable location of the firm. In the last two decades, several theories have been proposed to analyze the factors affecting the location of economic activities. These theories emphasize on many factors that can be summarized in two categories: factors affecting supply and demand. The aim of this article is to determine and analyze factors affecting the location of electronics industry in Iran. In this regard, 25 factors were identified. Whoever, this number of explanatory variables decreases the number of degree of freedom in a Logit and/or Probit model dramatically. So, the principal component analysis was used to decrease the number of LHS variables. Results show that the industrial development and the creation and maintenance of facilities have important effects on the location of electronics industry in different provinces of Iran. Also due to high proportion of the value to the weight of the final products or the high mobility and tradability of electronics industry products, local and surrounding area‘s income have negative impacts on the industry location.