2024-03-29T12:09:36+04:30 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?mag_id=26&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
26-1401 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2016 7 24 Estimating Spatial Concentration of Industry and Effective Factors on It Between Provinces of Iran Nader Mehregan mehregannader@yahoo.com Mohammad Hassan Fotros fotros@basu.ac.ir Ali Akbar Gholizadeh z_aliak@yahoo.com Younes Teymourei yteimori@gmail.com This paper considers spatial distribution of industrial activities and effective factors on such a distribution. Ellison and Glaeser’s spatial concentration index, has been used for measureing spatial distribution of industry. This index has been calculated by Ad-value variable for 30 provinces of Iran and for period of 2006-2013. So, The spatial panel data model has been used in order to stimate impact of effective factors on spatial concentration. Results of this paper, show that distribution of industrial activities between provinces is strongly unequal. Azarbaijan Sharghi, Markazi, Ghazvin and Tehran provinces by 0.03, 0.04, 0.05 and 0.06 for EG index, are the most industrial provinces respectively. Boushehr, Hormozgan and Ilam provinces with 0.68, 0.28 and 0.26 for EG index are the worst industrial provinces. Also, Results from estimating model show that spatial dependance of provinces is equal to 0.31. Increasing return to scale and transportation costs, each one by 0.07 and 0.001 for coefficient in model, are effective on spatial distribution of industry. Spatial concentration Spatial Dependance Krugman Model EG Index Spatial Panel Data Model 2016 6 01 7 40 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1401-en.pdf 10.18869/acadpub.jemr.6.24.7
26-1426 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2016 7 24 Optimal Extraction Path in a Oil and Gas Broun Field Under the Buyback Contractual Framework (Case Study on the Iranian Oil Field in the Persian Gulf) ali_meibodi@yahoo.com ghp.vahid@gmail.com ebrahimimo@yahoo.com ali_souri@yahoo.com Said moha mohammadali196645@yahoo.com The subject of this article is determining the oil optimal production path in one of the Iranian oil and gas brown field in Persian gulf, while the development of the field performed under the buyback contractual framework. In this research we have optimized a dynamic equation using numerically Bellman equation in Matlab program .We have considered different and possible oil price projections and discount rate scenarios. We have compared the differences between optimal production path and actual (and contractual) profiles. The results show that optimal production path is different from operator actual profile in both high and low discount rate (respectively 20% and 1%). Although contractual production profile and optimal production path for alternative discount rate is harmonization, However, Production profile bids by contractor matching with the calculated optimum production model  in option of a high discount rate, in the early period, is Verified  the expected behavior of international oil companies. But its incompatibility with actual performance the field indicates a incompatibility between the production plan bids by the contractor with the field real possibilities. Optimal Oil Production Path Risk Service Contracts Iranian Buyback Contract 2016 6 01 41 82 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1426-en.pdf 10.18869/acadpub.jemr.6.24.41
26-1270 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2016 7 24 Strategic Interaction Between Government and Central Bank in Framework of Cooperative and Non-Cooperative Games davoud mahmoudinia davoud.mahmoudinia@gmail.com jacob engwerda davoud.mahmoudinia@gmail.com rahim dallali esfahani davoud.mahmoudinia@gmail.com rasul bakhshi dastjerdi davoud.mahmoudinia@gmail.com majid fakhar davoud.mahmoudinia@gmail.com In this paper we analyzed the strategic interaction between government and central bank in Iranian economy. Using dynamic differential games and Nash equilibrium within cooperative and non-cooperative setting, we try to find the optimal values of debt, deficit and monetary base. The results of simulation show that in cooperative case the level of equilibrium debt is lower than the non-cooperative case and converge speed is higher in cooperative setting than non-cooperation setting. Also in cooperative case than non-cooperative case, less creation of money and less government deficit are needed for debt stabilization in long run. The results also show that in both cooperative and non-cooperative cases under uncertainty, more active policies are used to track debt to its equilibrium level. These active policies lead debt goes to smaller level. Differential Game Cooperative and Non-cooperative Game Nash Equilibrium Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy 2016 6 01 83 121 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1270-en.pdf 10.18869/acadpub.jemr.6.24.83
26-1122 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2016 7 24 Effect of Interregional Export on Regional Output Growth: Case study of Golestan Province and other Regional Using Two-Regional Input- Output Table nooroddin sharify nsharifu@umz.ac.ir Ramezan hosseinzadeh ra.hosseinzadeh@yahoo.com This study sought to evaluate the effect of changes in the composition of interregional intermediate exports and total volume of intermediate exports on the sectoral output of Golestan province and other regions using two-regional input-output model. For this purpose, at first, two-regional input- output tables for each of these region (Golestan province and other regions of country) were prepared for years 2006 and 2010 and then evaluate the effect of change in volume and composition of interregional exports on output changes in this regions using structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The results of the model for Golestan province indicate that the export of Golestan province to other regions of the country in study periods has decreased 349/09 billion Rials, and thereby total output of this province decreased 335/76 billion Rials. Also changes in composition of exports of Golestan province to other regions lead to increase 9.78 billion Rials in total output of this province. Interregional Export Economic Growth Golestan Province Two-Regional Input- Output Table 2016 6 01 123 146 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1122-en.pdf 10.18869/acadpub.jemr.6.24.123
26-1132 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2016 7 24 Financial Condition Index (FCI) Extraction for Iran s.a.roshan@alzahra.ac.ir motahareh.mahboobi@yahoo.com In recent years “Financial Conditions Index" (herein FCI) has been used as a key indicator of the monetary policy condition. Considering the importance of this index, the purpose of the present research is to reach a comprehensive index that includes all the monetary transmission mechanisms based on the Iranian economy. To this aim, a weighted average of the banking interest, real exchange rates , credits and price of other assets (namely the stock price index, and housing price index ), need to be calculated. The weighted average of the variables are obtained by estimating the, backward-looking aggregate supply and demand equations for Iran. In the next stage, in order to test the validity of the obtained index, and because of the importance of price stability for the central bank, the predictive power of the index from inflation in Iran was examined using Non-Nested Tests and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Seasonal data series are collected for the period of 1991-2012.The findings of this study show that the weight of housing price variable is higher than the other variables, whilst, the stock price index coefficient was not significant in any lag. Moreover, the results of second stage tests, indicate a good predicative power of the FCI index from the inflation in Iran. Financial Conditions Index Backward- Looking Aggregate Supply and Demand Inflation RMSE Non-Nested Test 2016 6 01 147 173 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1132-en.pdf 10.18869/acadpub.jemr.6.24.147
26-873 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2016 7 24 Effect of Women\'s Higher Education on Economic Growth in Some OPEC and North Africa Countries Elnaz Hajebi elnaz27@yahoo.com Mohammad Javad Razmi mjrazmi@um.ac.ir A great portion of economic growth deals with education and development implies a gradual substitution of human quality instead of their quantity in development process. Improvement and higher education of women and their role in economic growth should be considered from this aspect. Recently, many empirical studies have evaluated the effect of higher education based on sexual separation on economic growth. The result of these studies shows that the higher education of women has a positive impact on economic growth. This paper, analyses the role of women higher education in economic growth of  some OPEC member countries and North Africa including: Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Algeria, Ecuador, Morocco and Tunisia. This paper uses panel data over 1991-2010 period and a modified neo-classical Mankiw-Romer-Weil growth model which all levels of education are employed. The results of this study indicate that women higher education has positive and significant effect on GDP per capita in these countries which shows the high importance of women higher education in expediting the economic growth of the studied countries.Bearing in mind, the empirical and statistical description in this study, it appears it is necessary for these countries to invest in higher education of women proportionate to the higher educations by means of adopting suitable policies for scientific development necessary for economic growth. Women’s Higher Education OPEC and North Africa Countries Economic Growth 2016 6 01 175 200 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-873-en.pdf 10.18869/acadpub.jemr.6.24.175
26-1386 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2016 7 24 Productivity Method for Economic Growth without Liquidity Growth Mohammad ali Sobhamallahi sobhanallahi@yahoo.com Amin Kohgard amin.kohgard@gmail.com One of the opportunities that enable better utilization of funds to finance the country's policy makers, CEOs and financial institutions gives profit, use of barter transactions rather than cash transactions and money payment.  Although It deals with history as long as the formation of the first human set (before the invention of money and Intermediate goods), but the use of these methods to solve the problems of working capital has recently profit institutions literature and commercial transactions and has brought many benefits to users. In this article we have tried to introduce different methods of barter exchanges, clearing the way its numerous advantages explained and network productivity for economic development without growth, liquidity is provided. As a result, users could utalize the barter exchanges to development products or services and growth in competitive business environment, without affecting the growth of liquidity that causes fluctuation. Barter Barter Exchanges Bilateral Barter Trade Multilateral Barter Trade Barter Network 2016 6 01 201 225 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1386-en.pdf 10.18869/acadpub.jemr.6.24.201