2024-03-29T09:49:52+04:30
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?mag_id=30&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
30-1454
2024-03-29
10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
jemr
2228-6454
2538-4163
10.52547/jemr
2017
8
28
The Short and Long-run Elasticities of Tax Base Response to Business Cycles in Iran
Ezatollah
Abbasian
e.abbasian@gmail.com
Mohammad
Jafari
Mohjafari@gmail.com
Ebrahim
Nasiroleslami
enasiroleslami@yahoo.com
Farzaneh
Farzaneh Mohammadi
mohammadif.1984@yahoo.com
In recent years, with increasing of international sanctions and oil revenues falling in Iran, more attention has paid to public spending and taxes as a source of government financing. In this regard, numerous studies have focused on the issue of taxation and its role in economic development. However, the most studies in Iran analyses the role of taxes on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation and income inequality, and there is no research in the row of the changes in tax income over the business cycle. In this study, using the dynamic least squares method, short and long-run elasticity of tax bases in Iran in response to changes in GDP over the period 1973-2014 is calculated. The results shows that in the long run, the elasticity of income and corporate tax are statistically greater than one and for other tax bases are not significantly different from the unit. In the short run, elasticity of corporate tax is different from unit and other tax bases were not significantly different than unity. According to these results, it is suggested that the Iranian government should have less focusing on income and corporate tax during the recession period
Tax Income
Short and Long-run Elasticity of Tax Base
Business Cycles
Dynamic Least Squares Method
2017
7
01
7
33
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1454-en.pdf
10.29252/jemr.7.28.7
30-1415
2024-03-29
10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
jemr
2228-6454
2538-4163
10.52547/jemr
2017
8
28
Financial and Economic Evaluation of the Iran Petroleum Contract "IPC": Case Study of the Darquin Filed (phase III)
ha.sahebhonar@stu.um.ac.ir
taherifard@isu.ac.ir
fmoridifarimani@dundee.ac.uk
r_mahdavi_ir@yahoo.com
Addressing the economic components of the fiscal regime of the Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC), in this article the fiscal simulation of the contract has been developed. Most important fiscal parameters of the contract are: Capex and Opex, Cost of Money, remuneration fee, amortization period and R-factor. Technical information of the Darquin field (phase 3) has been used as a case study for this paper. The results show some merits and demerits. The most important output of the model is that the contractor's take is so small (about 3% in the discounted manner and the IRR of Contractor can’t exceed some amount (14.6%) by price increasing, showing the service nature of the contract. According to the results, remuneration fee is the most significant factor which can affect the IRR and take of the contractor, so its level should be determined carefully regarding the fiscal simulation model. Another issue which should be paid attention to is the determination of R-factor and remuneration fee slides. The fiscal regime is regressive in the levels of price lower than $50 and is progressive in the higher levels, but the profitability of the contractor in the higher levels is constant in absolute terms which can reduce the attractiveness of the contract. One of the major defects of the contract is the Gold-plating issue which is raised because of using R-Factor mechanism. Using the saving index can mitigate the problem notably.
Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC)
Fiscal regime
Fiscal Simulation
Darquin Field
Gold Plating
2017
7
01
35
73
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1415-en.pdf
10.29252/jemr.7.28.35
30-1227
2024-03-29
10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
jemr
2228-6454
2538-4163
10.52547/jemr
2017
8
28
Examination of Friedman’s Monetary Volatility Hypothesis in Iran: Asymmetric Approach From Extended VARMA, GARCHM Model
Hamed
Abdolmaleki
hamedab1986@gmail.com
Hossein
Asgharpur
asgharpurh@gmail.com
Jafar
Hghighat
jhaghighat79@gmail.com
Money supply and velocity of money are important variables that affect inflation and product. Velocity of money is a key concept for economic policy, and it's getting more important since it is closely related to behavior of the demand for money. In this regard, Friedman believes that the volatility of money growth is the main factor of velocity of money, which in monetary economics literature is known as Friedman’s monetary volatility hypothesis. The purpose of this study is to explore and explain the fluctuations in the velocity of mony from the perspective of Monetarism. In this regard, using Iran’s economic quarterly data for the period 1988(3)-2015(1) and in the framework of causality test, the Friedman hypothesis based on the impact of volatility of money growth on velocity of money is tested for monetary aggregates (M1 and M2). The model used in this paper is extended VARMA, GARCH-M and the estimated method is quasi maximum likelihood (QML). The results support the Friedman hypothesis for the period under study; in other words, there is a causal relationship from money growth volatility to velocity of money.
Money Growth Volatility
Velocity Of money
Monetary Aggregate
Asymmetric
VARMA
GARCH-M Model
2017
7
01
75
102
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1227-en.pdf
10.29252/jemr.7.28.75
30-1416
2024-03-29
10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
jemr
2228-6454
2538-4163
10.52547/jemr
2017
8
28
Reviews of mutual interest rate effects to macroeconomic variables in Islamic and un-Islamic countries
Hosein
mohammadi
Hoseinmohammadi@um.ac.ir
mehdi
mahmoudi
Mehdi.mahmoudi29@gmail.com
Interest rate is one of the most important policy variabels in macroeconomic. Global financial crises and big debt in some countries around the world, make the importance interest rate more explicitly. In the carrent study, the effect of interest rate, inflation, government investment and expenditure on GDP capita per was investigated using panel data approach. Forthermore panel VAR method was used to consider the effects of each mentioned variables on each other and investigating causality relationships between these variabls. 20 Islamic and 19 Non-Islamic countries during 1990-2014 were selected for this study. The results show that in both Islamic and Non-Islamic countries, interest and inflation rate have a significant negative effect on GDP per capita. Government investment in both groups of countries have a significant positive effect on GDP per capita. These results are inline with economic theories. Finally, government expenditures in these groups of countries have different effect on GDP per capita. also lowering interest rate Non-Islamic countries has a considerable effect on other variables.
Interest Rate
Per capita GDP
Inflation
Investment
Panel VAR
2017
7
01
103
138
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1416-en.pdf
10.29252/jemr.7.28.103
30-1512
2024-03-29
10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
jemr
2228-6454
2538-4163
10.52547/jemr
2017
8
28
A Project Selection Model Based on Islamic Economy: Effect of Khoums in Project Selection
Ali
Katebi
katebi@khu.ac.ir
Mohammad
Tavakkoli
mt3141@yahoo.com
According to Quran Karim verses and hadiths, Shia jurisprudence necessitates paying Khoums. Since Khoums belong to surplus of earning, as a result that should be considered in economic calculation of projects. Since this topic has been neglected in common economic evaluation of projects, this paper has addressed effect of considering Khoums in prioritize investment calculations in projects. For this purpose selection of projects considered in two cases: a) with khoums and b) without khoums factored in. The result show prioritization and selection of projects are different in two cases. Results of study show a project had priority without khoums factored in, might place outside prioritize investment with khoums. On the other hand the project is less profitable than other projects might place in priority compared other projects, with considering Khoums in economic calculations.
Economic Evaluation
Financial Process
Rate Of return
Net Present Worth of Project
Khoums
2017
7
01
139
159
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1512-en.pdf
10.29252/jemr.7.28.139
30-1520
2024-03-29
10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
jemr
2228-6454
2538-4163
10.52547/jemr
2017
8
28
Estimation of Demand Function of Religious Trips Using Method of Dynamic Linear Almost Ideal Demand Cystem
ali asghar
salem
salem207@yahoo.com
morteza
niazi
salem207@gmail.com
Religious tourism is very important either in Iran and in the international level. In this study dynamic linear almost ideal demand system and formulas of price and income elasticity were applied to estimate demand for religious trips. To this end, micro data of household budget prepared by Census center of Iran for 1991-2011 has been applied in this study.
According to the results, income elasticity of religious trips is about 0/42 , that means one percent increase in income will lead to an increase of 0/4 percent in demand for religious trips. Also the price elasticity of demand in all commodity groups is negative and price elasticity of religious trips is about -0/98.
Religious Tourism
Dynamic Linear Almost Ideal Demand System
Price Elasticity
Income Elasticity
2017
7
01
161
190
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1520-en.pdf
10.29252/jemr.7.28.161
30-1449
2024-03-29
10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research
jemr
2228-6454
2538-4163
10.52547/jemr
2017
8
28
Analyzes the Effects of Tax policy Reform on Macroeconomic Variables in Iran: Cash in Advance Approach (CIA)
Hojjat
izadkhasti
h_izadkhastiir@sbu.ac.
An efficient monetary and tax system plays an important role in the proper performance of the economic system, and can effect on motivation of labor, consumer, savings and investment behavior. A theory of monetary and tax reform is movement of the income tax system and inflation tax to the system of consumption tax, that can increase the tendency to savings, investment and capital accumulation. In this study, with public finance approach and using dynamic general equilibrium model with cash in advance restriction on consumption and investment, analysis the effects of reform inflation tax and consumption tax rates during the equilibrium growth path. Then, with put the amount of parameters in the steady state, sensitivity analysis of the variables to the reform of inflation tax and consumption tax rates will be discussed in the various reform program. The results of calibration and sensitivity analysis in various scenarios indicates that the reduce of inflation tax and increase the consumption tax rate, along with reducing the size of government and reduce liquidity constraints on investment, has increased capital accumulation, production, consumption, real money balances per capita and the welfare in the steady state.
Growth Model
Cash in Advance
Inflation Tax
Consumption Tax
Welfare Cost
2017
7
01
191
226
http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1449-en.pdf
10.29252/jemr.7.28.191