2024-03-29T09:49:52+04:30 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?mag_id=30&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
30-1454 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2017 8 28 The Short and Long-run Elasticities of Tax Base Response to Business Cycles in Iran Ezatollah Abbasian e.abbasian@gmail.com Mohammad Jafari Mohjafari@gmail.com Ebrahim Nasiroleslami enasiroleslami@yahoo.com Farzaneh Farzaneh Mohammadi mohammadif.1984@yahoo.com In recent years, with increasing of international sanctions and oil revenues falling in Iran, more attention has paid to public spending and taxes as a source of government financing. In this regard, numerous studies have focused on the issue of taxation and its role in economic development. However, the most studies in Iran analyses the role of taxes on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation and income inequality, and there is no research in the row of the changes in tax income over the business cycle. In this study, using the dynamic least squares method, short and long-run elasticity of tax bases in Iran in response to changes in GDP over the period 1973-2014 is calculated. The results shows that in the long run, the elasticity of income and corporate tax are statistically greater than one and for other tax bases are not significantly different from the unit. In the short run, elasticity of corporate tax is different from unit and other tax bases were not significantly different than unity. According to these results, it is suggested that the Iranian government should have less focusing on income and corporate tax during the recession period Tax Income Short and Long-run Elasticity of Tax Base Business Cycles Dynamic Least Squares Method 2017 7 01 7 33 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1454-en.pdf 10.29252/jemr.7.28.7
30-1415 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2017 8 28 Financial and Economic Evaluation of the Iran Petroleum Contract "IPC": Case Study of the Darquin Filed (phase III) ha.sahebhonar@stu.um.ac.ir taherifard@isu.ac.ir fmoridifarimani@dundee.ac.uk r_mahdavi_ir@yahoo.com Addressing the economic components of the fiscal regime of the Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC), in this article the fiscal simulation of the contract has been developed. Most important fiscal parameters of the contract are: Capex and Opex, Cost of Money, remuneration fee, amortization period and R-factor. Technical information of the Darquin field (phase 3) has been used as a case study for this paper. The results show some merits and demerits. The most important output of the model is that the contractor's take is so small (about 3% in the discounted manner and the IRR of Contractor can’t exceed some amount (14.6%) by price increasing, showing the service nature of the contract. According to the results, remuneration fee is the most significant factor which can affect the IRR and take of the contractor, so its level should be determined carefully regarding the fiscal simulation model. Another issue which should be paid attention to is the determination of R-factor and remuneration fee slides. The fiscal regime is regressive in the levels of price lower than $50 and is progressive in the higher levels, but the profitability of the contractor in the higher levels is constant in absolute terms which can reduce the attractiveness of the contract. One of the major defects of the contract is the Gold-plating issue which is raised because of using R-Factor mechanism. Using the saving index can mitigate the problem notably. Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) Fiscal regime Fiscal Simulation Darquin Field Gold Plating 2017 7 01 35 73 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1415-en.pdf 10.29252/jemr.7.28.35
30-1227 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2017 8 28 Examination of Friedman’s Monetary Volatility Hypothesis in Iran: Asymmetric Approach From Extended VARMA, GARCHM Model Hamed Abdolmaleki hamedab1986@gmail.com Hossein Asgharpur asgharpurh@gmail.com Jafar Hghighat jhaghighat79@gmail.com Money supply and velocity of money are important variables that affect inflation and product. Velocity of money is a key concept for economic policy, and it's getting more important since it is closely related to behavior of the demand for money. In this regard, Friedman believes that the volatility of money growth is the main factor of velocity of money, which in monetary economics literature is known as Friedman’s monetary volatility hypothesis. The purpose of this study is to explore and explain the fluctuations in the velocity of mony from the perspective of Monetarism. In this regard, using Iran’s economic quarterly data for the period 1988(3)-2015(1) and in the framework of causality test, the Friedman hypothesis based on the impact of volatility of money growth on velocity of money is tested for monetary aggregates (M1 and M2). The model used in this paper is extended VARMA, GARCH-M and the estimated method is quasi maximum likelihood (QML). The results support the Friedman hypothesis for the period under study; in other words, there is a causal relationship from money growth volatility to velocity of money. Money Growth Volatility Velocity Of money Monetary Aggregate Asymmetric VARMA GARCH-M Model 2017 7 01 75 102 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1227-en.pdf 10.29252/jemr.7.28.75
30-1416 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2017 8 28 Reviews of mutual interest rate effects to macroeconomic variables in Islamic and un-Islamic countries Hosein mohammadi Hoseinmohammadi@um.ac.ir mehdi mahmoudi Mehdi.mahmoudi29@gmail.com Interest rate is one of the most important policy variabels in macroeconomic. Global financial crises and big debt in some countries around the world, make the importance interest rate more explicitly. In the carrent study, the effect of interest rate, inflation, government investment and expenditure on GDP capita per was investigated using panel data approach. Forthermore panel VAR method was used to consider the effects of each mentioned variables on each other and investigating causality relationships between these variabls. 20 Islamic and 19 Non-Islamic countries during 1990-2014 were selected for this study. The results show that in  both Islamic and Non-Islamic countries, interest and inflation rate have a significant negative effect on GDP per capita. Government investment in both groups of countries have a significant positive effect on GDP per capita. These results are inline with economic theories. Finally, government expenditures in these groups of countries have different effect on GDP per capita. also lowering interest rate Non-Islamic countries has a considerable effect on other variables. Interest Rate Per capita GDP Inflation Investment Panel VAR 2017 7 01 103 138 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1416-en.pdf 10.29252/jemr.7.28.103
30-1512 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2017 8 28 A Project Selection Model Based on Islamic Economy: Effect of Khoums in Project Selection Ali Katebi katebi@khu.ac.ir Mohammad Tavakkoli mt3141@yahoo.com According to Quran Karim verses and  hadiths, Shia jurisprudence necessitates paying Khoums. Since Khoums belong to surplus of earning, as a result  that should be considered in economic calculation of projects. Since this topic has been neglected in common economic evaluation of projects, this paper has addressed effect of considering Khoums in prioritize investment calculations in projects.  For this purpose selection of projects considered in two cases: a) with khoums and b) without khoums factored in. The result show prioritization and selection of projects are different in two cases. Results of study show a project had priority without khoums factored in, might place outside prioritize investment with khoums. On the other hand the project  is less profitable than other projects might place in priority compared other  projects, with considering Khoums in economic calculations. Economic Evaluation Financial Process Rate Of return Net Present Worth of Project Khoums 2017 7 01 139 159 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1512-en.pdf 10.29252/jemr.7.28.139
30-1520 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2017 8 28 Estimation of Demand Function of Religious Trips Using Method of Dynamic Linear Almost Ideal Demand Cystem ali asghar salem salem207@yahoo.com morteza niazi salem207@gmail.com Religious tourism  is very important either in Iran and in the international level. In this study dynamic linear almost ideal demand system and formulas of price and income elasticity were applied to estimate demand for religious trips. To this end, micro data of household budget prepared by Census center of Iran for 1991-2011 has been applied in this study. According to the results, income elasticity of religious trips is about 0/42 , that means one percent increase in income will lead to  an increase of 0/4 percent in demand for religious trips. Also the price elasticity of demand in all commodity groups is negative and price elasticity of religious trips is about -0/98. Religious Tourism Dynamic Linear Almost Ideal Demand System Price Elasticity Income Elasticity 2017 7 01 161 190 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1520-en.pdf 10.29252/jemr.7.28.161
30-1449 2024-03-29 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2017 8 28 Analyzes the Effects of Tax policy Reform on Macroeconomic Variables in Iran: Cash in Advance Approach (CIA) Hojjat izadkhasti h_izadkhastiir@sbu.ac. An efficient monetary and tax system plays an important role in the proper performance of the economic system, and can effect on motivation of labor, consumer, savings and investment behavior. A theory of monetary and tax reform is movement of the income tax system and inflation tax to the system of consumption tax, that can increase the tendency to savings, investment and capital accumulation. In this study, with public finance approach and using dynamic general equilibrium model with cash in advance restriction on consumption and investment, analysis the effects of reform inflation tax and consumption tax rates during the equilibrium growth path. Then, with put the amount of parameters in the steady state, sensitivity analysis of the variables to the reform of inflation tax and consumption tax rates will be discussed in the various reform program. The results of calibration and sensitivity analysis in various scenarios indicates that the reduce of inflation tax and increase the consumption tax rate, along with reducing the size of government and reduce liquidity constraints on investment, has increased capital accumulation, production, consumption, real money balances per capita and the welfare in the steady state. Growth Model Cash in Advance Inflation Tax Consumption Tax Welfare Cost 2017 7 01 191 226 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1449-en.pdf 10.29252/jemr.7.28.191