2024-03-28T20:13:54+04:30 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?mag_id=7&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
7-474 2024-03-28 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2012 3 7 he Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy on Behaviour of Housing Price Cycles Mohsen Mehrara mmehrara@ut.ac.ir Keyvan Shahab Lavasani keyvanshahab@ut.ac.ir One of the most important aspects of vulnerability of the Iran economy can be observed in depreciation of real exchange rate during the oil booms. This phenomenon is called "Dutch disease". In other words when a country starts exporting natural resources, the ensuing capital inflows lead to an increase in demand. The real exchange rate (RER) typically appreciates due to “spending effect” as the price of domestic nontradables increases relative to the price of tradables. The main objective of this paper is to examine the cyclical patterns of the house price and macroeconomic variables in Iran. Using Hodrick and Prescot filtering method, the cross-correlation analysis is first presented to identify the long-run behavior of the variables. Then based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we investigate the interaction between housing price cycles and cyclical component of real oil revenue, real exchange rate, real GDP, money supply and interest rate. The results show that positive oil shocks, leads to an increase in housing price cycles. Housing price cycles Vector Auto Regressive Hodric and Prescot Filter 2012 3 01 1 26 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-474-en.pdf
7-202 2024-03-28 10.1002
Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2012 3 7 Analyzing OPEC Members Behavior: A Cooperation Game Approach Ghahraman Abdoli g_abdoli@yahoo.com Vahid Majed vahidmajed@yahoo.com   In the past decades, a range of discussions has been formed on coalition theory in economics and international sciences. The focus of this discussion is that in the absence of a superior power, and while some players want to expand their authorities, is it possible to cooperate or not. These theories agree on the principle that if such condition be a sequential game, cooperation will be permanent only if the players are patient enough. In the real world, there are many partnerships between groups that don’t have a same patience, i.e. the discount factor isn’t equal for each of the members. OPEC is an example of those groups which composed of members with different discount factor.   This paper investigates the future of OPEC members and their different discount factors. So, cooperative theory is used to analyze the behavior of OPEC members using panel data techniques. Results show that a fixed effects model is appropriate to explain OPEC member’s behavior. According to the model, the amount of marketed crude oil by members has positive relationship with stocks and sales in the previous period and also there is a negative relationship between the amount of marketed oil and square of proven reserves per capita. The results show that bargaining and negotiation between some members to achieve agreement rapidly and also relents or blackmails guarantees OPEC Survival. OPEC Game Theory Cooperation Patience Violation Time Preferences Panel Data. 2012 3 01 27 50 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-202-en.pdf
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Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2012 3 7 The Impact of Redistribution of Opportunities on Income Inequality: A CGE Approach Iman Haqiqi ihaqiqi@gmail.com Morteza Mortazavi kakhaki mortazavi.k@gmail.com   The allocation of opportunities affects income distribution and income inequality. This paper analyzes the economic impacts of initial allocation of resources and redistribution of opportunities. In this study, we apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model focusing on distribution of opportunities and allocation of available resources. The differences between households' income are caused by differences in labor income (skilled and unskilled) and the household's income from capital stock. The model is calibrated based on micro consistent matrix (MCM) of Iranian economy. We found that, the redistribution of opportunities and re-allocation of resources can reduce inequality. In other words, improvement in equality of opportunities leads to more equal society. The important finding of the study is that an increase in inequality of opportunity may cause the income gap grows faster. So, big reduction in inequality of income after small reduction in inequality of opportunities can be witnessed. Justice equality General Equilibrium Equality of opportunity Equality of Resources. 2012 3 01 51 73 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-435-en.pdf
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Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2012 3 7 Estimating Bilateral Export Potentials of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) in Non-Oil Industries Javad Abedini abedini@sharif.edu Iman Mesgari iman.mesgari@gmail.com This paper examines the success of bilateral export potentials between Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) member countries in non-oil industries. Based on the Anderson and Van Win-coop gravity model, an empirical trade equation is derived and estimated using the bilateral trade information of all 10 ECO countries as well as those of their 40 main common trade partners in non-oil industries over 1992-2009. We employed a GMM instrumental variable model (ABB estimator) for the dynamic specification and a FEM estimator for the static version of the model. The results show that the formation of ECO has no significant impact in increasing trade among member countries. The results also show that ECO trade potentials in non-oil industries are not far beyond the actual level. Furthermore, export potentials are asymmetrically distributed among members. Turkey, Iran and Pakistan are the only countries representing positive export potentials towards the group. In particular, Turkish export potentials to Iran are 3.5 times larger than those of Iran to Turkey. That is, free trade among ECO nations may result in regional trade deficit for some members. Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Panel Data Non-Oil Industries Export Potentials. 2012 3 01 75 96 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-306-en.pdf
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Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2012 3 7 The Optimal Environmental Tax in a Generalized Growth Model with Clean Technology Diffusion and Environment Quality: the Case of Iran javad harati j.harati@rose.shirazu.ac.ir karim Eslamloueyan KEslamlo@rose.shirazu.ac.ir mohammad ali ghetmiri meghetmiri@gmail.com     This study aims at determining the optimal environmental tax policy in the context of a dynamic model. For this purpose, clean technology diffusion was added to the AK growth model and the theoretical model has been generalized to the open economy. The main feature of the economy is creating pollution in the process of economic growth and its negative impact on social welfare. The diffusion of clean technology reduces pollution emission and has a positive effect on environmental quality and social welfare.   The Hamiltonian solution of the model indicates that the steady state growth rate and optimal tax pollution is affected by the consumer preference toward consumption and environmental quality, pollution elasticity with respect to production, clean technology diffusion, foreign growth rate, inverse elasticity of intertemporal substitution , depreciation rate of capital and trade parameters.   The results show that the optimal tax rate in Iranian economy is about 15 percent. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis shows that the emission elasticity of pollution subject to the production and environmental preference parameters have larger impacts on optimal tax rate than foreign growth rate and trade parameters.   Growth Environment Knowledge Spillover Open Economy Environmental Policy Iran. 2012 3 01 97 126 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-332-en.pdf
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Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2012 3 7 Developing an Inflation Model for Iranian Economy Based on Micro-Foundations Rahim Dallali Esfahani rateof interest@yahoo.com said samadi Email:samadi_sa@yahoo.com Mohammad Mahdi Mojahedi m_mojahedi2004@yahoo.com Amir Jabbari amirjabbari2002@yahoo.com Reza Samadi Boroujeni rezarsb@yahoo.com     This paper examines the effects of different variables on inflation in the monetary economics using endogenous growth models. So, different aspects of inflation formation were analyzed based on micro-foundations. We investigated the role of imported inflation, fiat money, expectations, monetary base and capital accumulation on inflation using an endogenous growth model. An ARDL approach was utilized to estimate the model for Iranian economy during 1979 -2008. The estimation results show that imported inflation affects the inflation through the exchange rate channel. Also, expectations, capital return and monetary base play an outstanding role in Iranian economy.   Inflation Endogenous Growth ARDL model. 2012 3 01 127 151 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-180-en.pdf
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Journal of Economic Modeling Research jemr 2228-6454 2538-4163 10.52547/jemr 2012 3 7 The Effect of Capital Inflow on Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries Sajad Ebrahimi ebrahimi_s@ut.ac.ir   This study examines the theoretical and empirical aspects of the effect of capital inflow on exchange rate in 14 developing countries for the period 1980-2009. We developed an empirical model to investigate the effects of term of trade, real per capita output and trade openness on real exchange rate using d ynamic and heterogeneous panel and Pool Mean Group (PMG) methods. Estimation results show that various capital inflow channels have different effect on real exchange rate. For non-oil countries, only foreign aid inflow causes exchange rate appreciation in long-run and short-run and creates Dutch disease. In oil exporting countries, oil revenues and foreign direct investment cause exchange rate appreciation and create Dutch disease problems in the long-run. However, an increase in oil revenues in oil exporting countries causes more exchange rate appreciation than an increase in foreign direct investment. Capital inflow Real Exchange Rate Dutch disease dynamic and heterogeneous panel. 2012 3 01 153 173 http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-188-en.pdf