دوره 9، شماره 35 - ( 3-1398 )                   سال9 شماره 35 صفحات 7-38 | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها

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Aminirad M, Mehregan N. Evaluation of Sustainability of the Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes in Iran Based on Duration Models. jemr. 2019; 9 (35) :7-38
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1711-fa.html
امینی راد مهدی، مهرگان نادر. ارزیابی تداوم نظام ارزی ایران مبتنی بر مدل‌های دوره‌ای. فصلنامه تحقیقات مدل سازی اقتصادی. 1398; 9 (35) :7-38

URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1711-fa.html


چکیده:   (532 مشاهده)
اقتصاد ایران به عنوان اقتصادی در حال توسعه و نفتی، نیازمند انتخاب نظام ارزی مناسب در راستای دستیابی به اهداف اقتصادی خویش است. مشخصه هایی نظیر تنوع پایین در تولید و تجارت، بازارهای مالی ضعیف و توسعه  نیافته و سایر مشخصه های اقتصاد ایران، ایجاب می-کند، انتخاب نظام ارزی کشور متناسب با مشخصه های مذکور باشد؛ به هرحال در انتخاب نظام ارزی یک کشور، متغیرهای زیادی اثرگذار هستند که بدون توجه به آنها، انتخاب نظام ارزی مشکل و غیرمنطقی خواهد بود. به همین منظور در پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از روش تحلیل بقا و استفاده از رویکرد رینهارت و رگف به بررسی نقش عوامل سیاسی و اقتصادی بر انتخاب نظام ارز ثابت در ایران بر اساس داده¬های ماهانه طی دوره 1359-1396 پرداخته شده است. مزیت روش تحلیل بقا، این است که وابستگی زمانی که ممکن است در وقوع یک رویداد وجود داشته باشد را در نظر گرفته و زمان می تواند به عنوان متغیر جانشین برای عوامل ساختاری غیرقابل مشاهده یک کشور در نظر گرفته شود. نتایج نشان داد، متغیرهای سیاسی و اقتصاد کلان در انتخاب نظام ارز ثابت در کشور اثرگذار هستند. اثرگذاری متغیرهای سیاسی بر نظام ارزی کشور نشان می دهد، در تصمیم گیری در مورد نرخ ارز در ایران، تنها  نظرات اقتصاددانان دخیل نبوده و ترجیحات مقامات سیاسی، اثر قابل‌توجهی بر سیاستهای ارزی دارد.
متن کامل [PDF 1100 kb]   (138 دریافت)    
نوع مطالعه: كاربردي | موضوع مقاله: پولی و مالی
دریافت: ۱۳۹۷/۳/۱۱ | پذیرش: ۱۳۹۷/۱۱/۱۳ | انتشار: ۱۳۹۸/۳/۲۰

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