دوره 9، شماره 35 - ( 3-1398 )                   سال9 شماره 35 صفحات 69-110 | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها

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Rajabi S, Manzoor D. Assessing the Importance of Energy Sector Using the Expanding Extraction Method: Iranian Economy. jemr. 2019; 9 (35) :69-110
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1796-fa.html
رجبی سجاد، منظور داوود. ارزیابی جایگاه بخش انرژی در اقتصاد ایران با به کارگیری روش حذف فرضی تعمیم یافته. فصلنامه تحقیقات مدل سازی اقتصادی. 1398; 9 (35) :69-110

URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1796-fa.html


چکیده:   (501 مشاهده)
در این مقاله با استفاده از روش حذف فرضی تعمیم یافته دیازنباخر و لهر (2013) و در قالب مدل تعادل عمومی داده-ستانده، به بررسی و ارزیابی جایگاه بخش انرژی و زیربخش-های آن در اقتصاد ایران طبق داده¬های به‏هنگام شده جدول داده-ستانده ایران به سال 1396 با تکنیک RAS پرداخته شده است. در این راستا ابتدا طبق چهار سناریو، کاهش 10 درصدی عرضه زیربخش¬های انرژی شامل زغال سنگ، نفت خام، برق و گاز بررسی شده اند و در سناریو پنجم با تلفیق زیربخش های انرژی به یک بخش، کاهش 10 درصدی عرضه انرژی بر 75 بخش اقتصاد سنجیده شده است. نتایج این مدل شبیه سازی شده نشان می دهد با کاهش عرضه بخش انرژی بخش «ساخت کُک و فراورده‌های حاصل از پالایش نفت» با کاهش 9 درصدی ارزش افزوده مواجه خواهد شد پس از آن نیز بخش های «حمل و نقل از طریق لوله» و «ساخت مواد و فراورده‌های شیمیایی» به ترتیب با 4درصد و 2درصد کاهش ارزش افزوده روبه رو می شوند.
متن کامل [PDF 1032 kb]   (106 دریافت)    
نوع مطالعه: كاربردي | موضوع مقاله: انرژی، منابع و محیط زیست
دریافت: ۱۳۹۷/۱۰/۱۶ | پذیرش: ۱۳۹۸/۲/۲۱ | انتشار: ۱۳۹۸/۳/۲۰

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