دوره 11، شماره 41 - ( 9-1399 )                   سال11 شماره 41 صفحات 91-144 | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها


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Mirnezami S R, Rajabi S, Moridi Farimani F. The Inflationary Effects of Increasing Electricity Price - in Different Consumption Tariffs - on Economic Activities and Household Cost: Input-Output Method. jemr. 2020; 11 (41) :91-144
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2033-fa.html
میرنظامی سید رضا، رجبی سجاد، مریدی فریمانی فاضل. تحلیل آثار تورمی افزایش قیمت برق در تعرفه‌های مختلف مصرف بر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی و خانوارها با استفاده از روش داده-ستانده. تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی. 1399; 11 (41) :91-144

URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2033-fa.html


چکیده:   (535 مشاهده)
کاهش یا حذف یارانه بخش برق در اقتصاد، از گذشته همواره به‌عنوان یک راهکار در جهت کنترل مصرف روزافزون برق مطرح بوده است. با افزایش یا کاهش یارانه برق، مالیات غیرمستقیم کاهش یا افزایش می‌یابد. در این شرایط تحت فرض ثبات نهاده‏های اولیه و ثبات تکنولوژی تولید برق و بر مبنای مدل‌سازی داده-ستانده، تأثیرات افزایش قیمت برق بر قیمت کالاهای تولیدی بخش‏های 75گانه اقتصادی سنجیده شد. نتایج این شبیه‏سازی -که تحت سه سناریوی  افزایش قیمت برق به میزان 7%، 16% و 23% انجام‌شده است- نشان می‌دهد که تورم بخش‏های «ارتباطات»، «ساخت محصولات غذایی» و «ساخت محصولات کانی غیرفلزی طبقه‌بندی نشده» بیشتر از سایر بخش‌ها خواهد بود. با در نظر گرفتن مجموع منافع به‌دست‌آمده از افزایش قیمت و هزینه‌های اقتصادی-اجتماعی آن برای مشترکین خانگی، سناریو «افزایش قیمت تعرفه مشترکین مصارف خانگی 7%»، «افزایش قیمت تعرفه مصارف عمومی 16%»، «افزایش قیمت تعرفه مشترکین مصارف تولید آب و کشاورزی 16%»، «افزایش قیمت تعرفه مشترکین مصارف تولید صنعت و معدن 23%» و درنهایت «افزایش قیمت تعرفه مشترکین سایر مصارف 23%» می‌تواند تعرفه پیشنهادی برای افزایش قیمت برق باشد.
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نوع مطالعه: كاربردي | موضوع مقاله: انرژی، منابع و محیط زیست
دریافت: 1399/2/20 | پذیرش: 1399/8/18 | انتشار: 1399/10/21

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