Volume 12, Issue 44 (7-2021)
jemr 2021, 12(44): 143-190 |
Back to browse issues page
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Taherpoor J, Mirzaei H, Soheili Ahmadi H, Rajabi F. Investigating the Effect of Coronavirus Outbreak on Iran’s Gross Output. jemr 2021; 12 (44) :143-190
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2092-en.html
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2092-en.html
1- Allameh Tabataba'i University , taherpoor.j@gmail.com
2- Allameh Tabataba'i University
3- Kharazmi University
2- Allameh Tabataba'i University
3- Kharazmi University
Abstract: (2263 Views)
Many governments face a trade-off between health and economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Social distancing and lockdown caused decline in gross domestic product of coronavirus affected countries. In this study, by using the input-output table of 2011, the hypothetical extraction method is used to extract 10 selected economic activities hypothetically from economic system and examine the direct and indirect effect of this extraction on Iran’s gross output. Results show that extraction of passenger transport, aviculture and clothing sectors result in the greatest reductions in gross domestic product. Furthermore, extraction of accommodation services, travel agency and tour operator activities and foodservice industry as representative of the tourism sector is able to reduce total output by almost one percent. Considering these ten selected sectors, 6.5 percent of Iran’s total economic output would be impacted by coronavirus outbreak.
Keywords: Total Output, Hypothetical Extraction Method, Novel Coronavirus, Input-Output Table, Epidemic
Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
رشد و توسعه و سیاست های کلان
Received: 2020/10/4 | Accepted: 2021/11/18 | Published: 2022/01/25
Received: 2020/10/4 | Accepted: 2021/11/18 | Published: 2022/01/25
References
1. Altig, D., et al (2020). Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Public Economics, 191, 104274. [DOI:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104274]
2. Banooi, A., Jolodari Mamaghani, M., Azad, S. (2010). Application of Eigenvector in Measurement of Backward and Forward Linkages. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 13(41), 53-77 (in persian).
3. Barro, R. J., & Sala-I-Martin, X. (1995). Economic Growth. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
4. Barro, R. J., Ursúa, J. F., & Weng, J. (2020). The coronavirus and the great influenza pandemic: Lessons from the "spanish flu" for the coronavirus's potential effects on mortality and economic activity (No. w26866). National Bureau of Economic Research. [DOI:10.3386/w26866]
5. Bell, C., & Lewis, M. (2005). Economic Implications of Epidemics Old and New. Available at SSRN 997387. [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.997387]
6. Binder, C. (2020). Coronavirus fears and macroeconomic expectations. Review of Economics and Statistics, 102 (4): 721-730. [DOI:10.1162/rest_a_00931]
7. Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2001). The effect of health on economic growth: theory and evidence (No. w8587). National Bureau of Economic Research. [DOI:10.3386/w8587]
8. Coccia, M. (2021). The relation between length of lockdown, numbers of infected people and deaths of Covid-19, and economic growth of countries: Lessons learned to cope with future pandemics similar to Covid-19 and to constrain the deterioration of economic system. Science of The Total Environment, 775, 145801. [DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145801]
9. Dietzenbacher, E. (1992), The Measurement of Inter-industry Linkages: Key Sectors in the Netherlands; Economic Modeling, 9(4), 419-437. [DOI:10.1016/0264-9993(92)90022-T]
10. Emamgholipour, S., & Agheli, L., (2020), An Analysis of the Economic Consequences of COVID-19 and the Functioning of Governments' Financial Packages in its Management; Culture and Health Promotion, 4 (1),71-78 (in persian).
11. Fan, E. X. (2003). SARS: economic impacts and implications. Asian Development Bank.
12. Ghosh, A. (1958), Input-Output Approach in an Allocation System, Economica, New Series, 25(97), 58-64. [DOI:10.2307/2550694]
13. Hanna, D., & Huang, Y. (2004). The impact of SARS on Asian economies. Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 102-112. [DOI:10.1162/1535351041747978]
14. Hansen, L., & Sargent, T. J. (2001). Robust control and model uncertainty. American Economic Review, 91(2), 60-66. [DOI:10.1257/aer.91.2.60]
15. Hirshleifer, J. (1987). Economic behaviour in adversity. University of Chicago Press.
16. IMF (2020). World Economic Outlook Database. April 2020.
17. Jonung, L., & Roeger, W. (2006). The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe-A model-based assessment. European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 251, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission. [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.920851]
18. Jordà, Ò., Singh, S. R., & Taylor, A. M. (2020). Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics (No. w26934). National Bureau of Economic Research. [DOI:10.3386/w26934]
19. Keogh-Brown, M. R., & Smith, R. D. (2008). The economic impact of SARS: how does the reality match the predictions? Health policy, 88(1), 110-120. [DOI:10.1016/j.healthpol.2008.03.003]
20. Kohlscheen, E., Mojon, B., & Rees, D. (2020). The macroeconomic spillover effects of the pandemic on the global economy. Available at SSRN 3569554. [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3569554]
21. Lee, G., & Warner, M. (2007). The political economy of the SARS epidemic: the impact on human resources in East Asia. Routledge. [DOI:10.4324/9780203934814]
22. Lee, J. W., & McKibbin, W. J. (2003). The impact of SARS. In China: New Engine of World Growth. Asia Pacific Press.
23. Lee, J. W., & McKibbin, W. J. (2004). chapter 2 of Learning from SARS: Preparing for the Next Disease Outbreak: edited by Oberholtzer, K., Sivitz, L., Mack, A., Lemon, S., Mahmoud, A., & Knobler, S. (Eds.). Workshop Summary. National Academies Press.
24. Lee, J. W., & McKibbin, W. J. (2004). Globalization and disease: The case of SARS. Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 113-131. [DOI:10.1162/1535351041747932]
25. Leontief, W. W. (1936). Quantitative input and output relations in the economic systems of the United States. The review of economic statistics, 18(3),105-125. [DOI:10.2307/1927837]
26. Matlabi, S.M.M. (2019), The Impact of Corona-Covid 19 Pandemic on Predicting Growth in National Production in 1399. Social Impact Assessment Quarterly, Special Issue on the Consequences of Corona-Covid 19 Outbreak: 183-206 (in persian).
27. McKibbin, W. J., & Wilcoxen, P. J. (1999). The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model. Economic modelling, 16(1), 123-148. [DOI:10.1016/S0264-9993(98)00035-2]
28. McKibbin, W., & Fernando, R. (2021). The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios. Asian Economic Papers, 20(2), 1-30. [DOI:10.1162/asep_a_00796]
29. McNeill, W. H., & McNeill, W. (1998). Plagues and peoples. Anchor
30. Ozili, P. K., & Arun, T. (2020). Spillover of COVID-19: impact on the Global Economy. Available at SSRN 3562570. [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3562570]
31. Rajabi, F., Taherpoor, J., Mirzaei, H., Soheili, H. (2021). The Impact of Coronavirus Pandemic on Sectors of Iranian Economy. Journal of Iranian Economic Issues, (doi:10.30465/CE.2021.6982) (in persian).
32. Romer, D. (1995). Advanced Macroeconomics. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
33. Romer, P. M. (1989). Human capital and growth: theory and evidence (No. w3173). National Bureau of Economic Research. [DOI:10.3386/w3173]
34. Taherpoor, J (2019), Consequences of Corona virus outbreak on Iran's economy and strategies to deal with it (production and unemployment), Research project conducted at Allameh Tabataba'I University (in persian).
35. Taherpoor, J., Mirzaei, H., khodaparast, Y., Rezai, S. (2020). The Effect of Coronavirus Outbreak on Government Budget in Year 2020. Journal of Iranian Economic Issues, 7(2), 181-221. doi: 10.30465/ce.2021.6303 (in persian).
36. Sadeghi, N., Mousavi Nik, S. (2017). A Comparative Study of Traditional, Eigenvector and Hypothetical Extraction Methods to Identify Key Sectors. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 21(69), 173-208. doi: 10.22054/ijer.2017.7513 (in persian).
37. Schultz, S. (1977), Approaches to Identifying Key Sectors Empirically by Means of Input-Output Analysis, Journal of Development Studies, 14(1), 77-96. [DOI:10.1080/00220387708421663]
38. Schultz, T. W. (1964). Changing relevance of agricultural economics. Journal of Farm Economics, 46(5), 1004-1014. [DOI:10.2307/1236672]
39. Siu, A., & Wong, Y. R. (2004). Economic impact of SARS: the case of Hong Kong. Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 62-83. [DOI:10.1162/1535351041747996]
40. Szabo, N. (2015). Methods of Regionalizing Input-Output Tables, Regional Statistics, 5(1), 44-65. [DOI:10.15196/RS05103]
41. Yang, H. Y., & Chen, K. H. (2009). A general equilibrium analysis of the economic impact of a tourism crisis: A case study of the SARS epidemic in Taiwan. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 1(1), 37-60. [DOI:10.1080/19407960902738313]
Send email to the article author
| Rights and permissions | |
 | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
